Posted by
Brian Kennedy on Friday, July 13, 2007 11:19:40 AM
Candidate Update: Where I Stand (July)
Welcome to the second installment of candidate update. I’m currently thinking about featuring this once a month, since it allows plenty of time for things to play out. Here is a summary of the candidates to date. The last month has been slow for events and news regarding election 2008, a predictable lull before the storm. Last update here.
Democrats:
Hillary Clinton: The Glacier still has the mighty Clinton mud machine behind her, but she hasn’t implemented yet. Barry O is still running strong and Edwards is still pushing his two Americas rhetoric. Hilldog still has a few landmine statements that can easily be pulled out against her, and she’s still a robot. There are rumors she wants to meet with Edwards’ people, so I can only assume they want to knock out Barry O.
Barack Obama: The Messiah hasn’t been getting any media coverage lately so he’s not in the front of everyone’s mind at this point. He’s still inexperienced and is running on a charisma powered campaign, but that charisma has been eroding.
John Edwards: I may have overestimated John Edwards’ nutroots power in my last update. Sending his wife to attack Ann Coulter and in general falling on his sword too often are missteps that can hurt him. Apparently the cancer issue has passed, since he hasn’t been milking that for sympathy.
Bill Richardson: My concerns about Bill Richardson pegged on whether he made an aggressive move, and so far he hasn’t. He may just be biding his time for a big push or simply becoming complacent and falling behind.
None of the other Democrats really stand a chance at this point. If they actually had positions that differentiated each other, they might be able to usurp the Clintons and the media choice, but as it stands the Democratic primary is a popularity contest among socialists. Al Gore can’t get a crowd for his global warming pet project; I doubt he’s planning to run for President.
Most likely to win nomination: Hillary Clinton
Second: John Edwards
Republicans:
Mitt Romney: Who dares oppose the Mormonator? I’m still pulling for team Romney. The worst dirt they’ve managed to pull on Romney is that he once strapped a pet carrier to the roof of his car to go on a family vacation with their dog. His business and executive experience are still the strongest of the Republican candidates. Romney’s Mormonism is irrelevant to anyone seriously weighing the candidates, and any time Romney talks about his faith his numbers move up off the charts. I can’t conceivably see being swayed from Romney at this point.
Rudy Giuliani: Giuliani is still a bit of a lightning rod for me. He’s certainly more acceptable than any Democrat, but his hyper-moderate policies are a turn-off. I can trust Giuliani on the War on Terror, but I worry about his social policies. Supreme Court Justices are the single most important decision a President makes. This is because the liberals want to rule via judicial fiat. In a perfect world where liberals didn’t think the Constitution was a flexible noodle on which to imprint their agenda, this wouldn’t be such a big issue, but that isn’t how our world is.
Ron Paul: Virtua Fighter managed to overtake a plummeting McCain, but he’s still a Blame America First Truther crank. His internet support is strong, but his on-the-ground reality is weak.
Mike Huckabee: Huckabee hasn’t picked up any traction and is sliding into irrelevance. Still a strong VP choice, but unless he makes a few big waves in the next couple of months, he won’t win the nomination.
John McCain: In free fall thanks to Amnesty. He probably won’t be getting up.
Fred Thompson: The Paper Tiger himself. He still hasn’t declared, he’s just been postponing his big announcement and my patience has worn thin. Fred’s problem is he’s running a Republican Barry O style campaign: All charisma, no substance. If he weren’t on Law and Order, no one would know who he is nor would they care. My problem with Fred isn’t that I disagree with his opinions, it’s that he’s doing rehash mania of long held conservative opinions. He’s an essayist auditioning for President. Giuliani has new ideas, Romney has new ideas. Fred has… appeared on Leno and Hannity for softball interviews.
Most likely to win nomination: Romney
Second: Giuliani
I think if Romney wins he’s got Hillary and Edwards on the rope. Even for his “robot” fame Clinton makes Romney look like The Flash. Edwards lives off of Two America’s rhetoric that, if sliced through, leaves him without support. Giuliani has never proved himself to be Hillary bane, and a Clinton win would come more from conservative Republicans staying home and Democrats voting for the even more liberal Hillary then any technical majority.
Matrix:
Romney vs. Clinton: 52/48
Romney vs. Edwards: 54/46
Giuliani vs. Clinton: 49/51
Giuliani vs. Edwards: 52/48